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Bitcoin’s Daily Active Addresses Plummet As Top Theory Builds Momentum

Morale is down in Bitcoinland and so are the number of DAA. Does this mean that we already reached the top of this cycle? It might, but that’s not set in stone. We’re in no man’s land and our compass is pointing everywhere at once. Technical indicators contradict each other, and nobody seems to know which way is up. Nevertheless, historically, the Daily Active Addresses index has been useful in these situations.

The previous time this happened, Bitcoinist reported:

The data reflected that there are now fewer wallets that send or receive Bitcoin on a day-to-day basis. Santiment asserts that DAA correlates strongly with the asset’s price action.
“For example, throughout Q1 of 2019, the DAA were steadily growing way before the market started to recover,” the portal wrote in DAA’s introductory note. “Same holds true for July 2019, when a decline in DAA preceded a decline in price.”

Make sure to notice that we’re referring to “wallets that send or receive Bitcoin on a day-to-day basis,” Daily Active Addresses are the strong indicator. We’re not talking about non-zero BTC addresses, which, as we reported, reached an all-time high two months ago. However: 

Historical data indicates that the number of non-zero addresses was no longer a dependent variable of BTC’s price action since late 2017 and early 2018. As such, we can conclude that an increase in total addresses will not directly equate to Bitcoin rallying. Still, a strong growth in the number of wallets suggests that Bitcoin has much more room to grow. 

Daily Active Addresses drop, chart by Arcane Research

Is the top in? This chart seems to think so. | Source: Arcane Research

What Does The Daily Active Addresses Drop Indicate?

According to Arcane Research, “the sudden drop in on-chain activity corresponded with the latest price correction.” No surprise there. Part of the course. Then they say, “historically, larger drops in on-chain activity corresponded well with market tops.” Panic. Was that the top already? No way! Well, Arcane Research promises to keep an eye on the indicator, because further drops might set 2021’s top in stone. However:

We have seen several drops in on-chain activity followed by sharp recoveries in both price and activity historically, so this is not necessarily a guaranteed top signal. Time will tell.

That’s a relief. Nevertheless, both the chart and the Daily Active Addresses statistics paint a bleak picture. Luckily, there are a number of indicators that point in the other direction, like this one. Plus, we’re in the midst of it. In retrospect, everything will make sense, but right now no human being has the necessary perspective to see the whole picture. 

BTCUSDT price chart for 06/02/2021 - TradingView

BTC price chart on Bingbon | Source: BTC/USDT on TradingView.com

It’s also worth pointing out that Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain steel-solid and that governments around the world continue to print bills like there’s no tomorrow. So, the case in favor of Bitcoin still stands, regardless of the price. The graphs might be pointing down, but the value of the Bitcoin network remains the same.

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Bitcoin is risky digital 'copper', it’s not gold — Goldman Sachs commodities boss :

Jeff Currie, the global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, described Bitcoin as a “risk-on” asset that is similar to copper as a hedge against inflation.

Jeff Currie, the global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, has dismissed comparisons between Bitcoin and gold as an inflation hedge, and described BTC as more akin to a “risk-on” asset like copper.

Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe on June 1, Currie noted that copper and Bitcoin both work as “risk-on assets” for hedging due to their volatility while describing gold as a more stable “risk-off” hedge”:

"Digital currencies are not substitutes for gold. If anything, they would be a substitute for copper, they are pro-risk, risk-on assets. They are a substitute for risk on inflation hedges not risk-off inflation hedges"

“You look at the correlation between Bitcoin and copper, or a measure of risk appetite and Bitcoin, and we’ve got 10 years of trading history on Bitcoin — it is definitely a risk-on asset,” he added.

Currie’s comments come after the recent crypto downturn, which has seen Bitcoin’s price fall 36.8% in a few weeks according to CoinGecko, declining from around $57,000 on May 12 to roughly $36,000 today.

Ethereum has also taken a similar hit, dipping 39.58%, moving from around $4,300 on May 12 to around $2,598.

Copper has seen a lot of volatility in 2021. On Jan. 3 it was priced at $3.56 and rose to 4.30 by Feb. 24. The price then fluctuated between $3.50 to $4.00 from March until it broke out to $4.80 on May 10. The price now sits at $4.65.

Currie noted that “there is good inflation and there is bad inflation,” which different assets hedge against, and explained that, “Good inflation is when demand pulls it" and he said Bitcoin, copper and oil are hedges against this type of inflation. However:

“Gold hedges bad inflation, where supply is being curtailed, which is … focused on the shortages on chips, commodities, and other types of input raw materials. And you would want to use gold as that hedge.”

The Goldman Sachs boss previously argued in an April note that Bitcoin cannot yet be seen as digital gold, as its “vulnerable to losing store-of-value demand to another, better-designed cryptocurrency," adding that: "We think it is too early for Bitcoin to compete with gold for safe-haven demand and the two can coexist."

According to TradingView, since April 1 gold has been on an upward trend, increasing from $1686 up to $1900 as of today.

 In a note from Monday, Currie stated that he believes commodities with real-world use are the best hedge against inflation because they ultimately rely on demand, and not growth rates:

“Commodities are spot assets that do not depend on forward growth rates but on the level of demand relative to the level of supply today.”

“As a result, they hedge short-term unanticipated inflation, created when the level of aggregate demand is exceeding supply in the late stages of the business cycle,” the note added.

 
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Analyst Warns of Potential Bitcoin ‘Death Cross’ and Dump to $18,000 :

Author: Martin Young Last Updated Jun 2, 2021 @ 05:04

With areas of resistance being rejected, Bitcoin has failed to recover and the bearish sentiment is building as evidenced by threatening technical signals.

An ominous technical indicator called the ‘death cross’ is looming suggesting that the Bitcoin bull market could well be over. Cryptocurrency trader ‘Rekt Capital’ has observed the bearish signal stating “whenever a Death Cross occurs, BTC experiences deeper downside,”

A death cross is a technical chart pattern indicating the potential for a major sell-off or strengthening downtrend. It appears on a chart when an asset’s short-term moving average crosses below its long-term moving average. Typically, the most common moving averages used in this pattern are the 50-day and 200-day moving averages.

#BTC is on the cusp of a potential Death Cross

Whenever a Death Cross occurs, BTC experiences deeper downside

How likely is it that this Death Cross occurs for $BTC?

And if it does – what should we potentially expect?

Here’s a thread with my thoughts about the Death Cross:

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) June 1, 2021

Bearish Trend Confirmation
The analyst stated that there is a lot of lag before a death cross occurs and a lot of the selling may already have taken place.

Since its $65K all-time high, Bitcoin has already lost 43.5% to current levels which is nothing out of the ordinary for correction sizes. However, the foreboding technical signal could mean that there is a lot more pain to come.

The analyst drew a comparison to the 2017 bull market and the time it took for the death cross to occur:

“When BTC peaked in 2017, it took 107 days for the Death Cross to occur. That’s 3.5 months. And during those 3+ months… Bitcoin dropped -70% from the $20,000 peak,”

He added that once the death cross happened in April 2018, Bitcoin experienced an additional -65% correction to the downside as it fell to $3,200 in December of the same year.

The mini-rally in mid-2019 was similar with the death cross showing 149 days after the peak. By this time, BTC prices had dumped 53%, but a further dump of 55% came after the cross.

History Repeating for Bitcoin?
The analysts attempted to predict when the death cross would occur:

“If history repeats, BTC could see its Death Cross occur sometime between very late July or in early September 2021,”

Using previous figures from previous cycles, he suggested that a 55% decline from a death cross appearing at around similar levels from the peak would send prices tumbling to around $18,000.

He added that a fall like this would return prices to the 200-week moving average which has traditionally been a major support and long-term buy zones.

“Which ties in with the 200-Week EMA which tends to offer fantastic opportunities with outsized ROI for BTC investors,”

At the time of press, BTC was trading flat on the day at $36,660 according to CoinGecko.

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Bitcoin’s Hashrate Nears All Time High

  June 3, 2021 3:40 pm0

Bitcoin’s hashrate has almost fully recovered, rising from a low of 106 exahashes per second to around 174 currently as pictured above.

That’s close to the same levels prior to its fall at 180 eh/s, although it did reach a very brief 198 eh/s before dropping to near 100 in April and then again to 124 exahashes in May.

The drop was due to claims China was to ‘crackdown’ on bitcoin mining with Inner Mongolia ostensibly kicking out miners.

In addition the Iranian president went on TV to announce a temporary ban on bitcoin mining, but where raw data is concerned there is no evidence any of this has happened.

Iran in particular is thought to have 4% of the global bitcoin hashrate. That’s not much, 7.2 exahashes at 180 eh/s, but you can imagine enforcing such temporary ban would be very difficult.

That’s even if they were really willing to do it, which according to the unforgeable data, they probably aren’t.

With such a low hashrate share, however, one can’t easily jump to conclusions because western miners have been busy piling up asics datacenters with just Marathon recently announcing they’ve added 16,809 S-19 Pro ASIC miners this year.

So we can let Iran off the hook by suggesting it may well be other western miners have added 7 exahashes, so cancelling them out.

Where China is concerned, however, it appears very clear there is no crackdown at all, arguably not even in Inner Mongolia.

If there were, it would be visible as China has at this stage probably around 40% of the hashrate. That’s around 72 exahashes which is by how much the hashrate fell in April, while in May it fell by 60 eh/s or around 30%.

It is possible in theory that miners may have quickly moved either from Inner Mongolia to other regions, or out of China to other countries.

In such case they would have done so in about two weeks, which is possible in an operation Get Out: The Gestapo is Comming.

So however much we want to say China lied and little bulls died while hodlers maybe get to thrive, we may have also seen in action the powerlessness of the CCP to affect bitcoin except for very temporarily.

There is however a third version and probably the correct one. There were power outages at Sichuan bitcoin miners due to limitations imposed on industrial use because of dry season.

The bear hive then blew this out of proportions, with some low ranking official giving them bones to chew upon. And now two weeks later data reveals bitcoin either wasn’t banned or is unbanned in China for the trillionth time.

Meaning all we can conclude with some reasonable certainty is China has about 80 exahashes, or 40% of the network, and about 50 of it is in Sichuan and Inner Mongolia with Sichuan having around 30% of the hash as that’s where most bitcoin mining occurs.

Now two weeks later almost all of this hash is once again fully operational with China’s global share likely to continue falling primarily due to market forces pushing out any influence by the CCP.

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Bitcoin Drops After Musk Tweets of Breakup
Omkar Godbole
Bitcoin fell Friday after Tesla CEO Elon Musk put out a cryptic tweet hinting at a breakup with the largest cryptocurrency.
  • Musk tweeted a broken heart with the bitcoin (BTC, -4.53%) logo and a picture showing a couple in the midst of a breakup during the Asian hours.
  • The crypto community took it as a sign of the billionaire distancing himself from bitcoin and offered the cryptocurrency, leading to price losses.
  • Bitcoin fell nearly 7%, hitting lows under $36,500 and reversing Thursday's rally to $39,200. Other cryptocurrencies including ether (ETH, -5.44%), cardano (ADA, -6.97%), polkadot (DOT, -9.14%), and dogecoin (DOGE, -8.35%) followed suit, suffering relatively bigger losses.
  • The pullback poured cold water over the optimism generated by the symmetrical-triangle breakout confirmed on Thursday.
  • "The failed breakout is not a good sign," Delta Exchange CEO Pankaj Balani said. "We could see deeper losses if the recent range is breached to the downside."
 

BTCUSD-daily-chart-2-775x385.png

 

Bitcoin's daily chart Source: TradingView

  • Bitcoin is currently down more than 70% from the record-high $64,801 reached on April 14.
  • The cryptocurrency fell by 35% last month after Tesla delisted bitcoin as means of payment, citing environmental concerns. The move quashed hopes for widespread corporate adoption.
  • Musk's latest tweet may further amplify those fears.
  • Data provided by Skew shows the options market is biased bearish, with long put trades accounting for 29% of the flows seen today and short call trades accounting for 30%.
  • Investors typically buy puts and sell calls when the market is expected to drop.
 

skew_btc_option_flows__current_day-4-775

 

Bitcoin options flows

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BTC/USDT
Bitcoin rose above the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle on June 3 but the bulls could not push the price above the 20-day exponential moving average ($39,856). This suggests the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on relief rallies.

7e210ef4-ed82-4c36-9729-44fda0265b4c.png BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bears have pulled the price back into the triangle and they will now try to sink the price below the support line of the triangle. If they succeed, the BTC/USDT pair could retest the critical support zone at $30,000 to $28,000.

If this zone cracks, panic selling may set in and that could result in a drop to the next major support at $20,000. Such a deep fall could delay the start of the next leg of the uptrend.

The first sign of strength will be a breakout and close above the 20-day EMA. That will suggest the sentiment has improved and bulls are buying at higher levels. The rally could then extend to the 50-day simple moving average ($48,192).

 

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Bitcoin's trillion dollar issue: ESG takes stage at Bitcoin 2021 conference
Jun. 05, 2021 12:01 
The number one issue keeping institutions like pension funds and sovereign wealth funds from allocating assets into Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is ESG concern, says Kevin O'Leary, moderating a panel of Bitcoin miner CEOs: Fred Thiel of Marathon Patent (NASDAQ:MARA), Jason Les of Riot Blockchain (NASDAQ:RIOT), and Frank Holmes of Hive Blockchain (OTCQX:HVBTF).
Holmes made an attempt at suggesting a two-tier system for Bitcoin, noting every single fresh coin he mines is pure - coming via renewable energy and was never used in any sort of suspect transaction. Needless to say, it wasn't a popular line with the attendees.
Riot's Jason Les quickly took the opposite view, saying one of Bitcoin's strengths is its total and complete fungibility and that this must always be the case (to cheers from the crowd).
Marathon's Thiel's sympathies clearly align with the fungibility argument, and he further notes that only about 900 bitcoin are mined each day. If institutional level investors want to own bitcoin, they've got no choice but to buy from the broader market.
Of Bitcoin ETFs, Hive's Holmes - who years ago was highly involved in attempting to launch one - believes U.S. regulators may continue to hold off on approval. It's not necessarily ESG concerns, he says, but instead anti-money-laundering worry. Thiel isn't too concerned either way, noting investors already have any number of ways to buy bitcoin. And while things may be a bit costly and cumbersome now, that's going to vastly improve on both fronts very quickly.
Jason Les gets the last word. While he thinks it's great that the Bitcoin community is trying to get the message out about how mining is actually going to be a plus for greener energy, ultimately its about incentives. Mining is a highly competitive business, and owners are constantly looking to cut costs and raise efficiency.
#Bitcoin 2021

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Musk’s Crypto Tweets ‘Destroyed Lives,’ Anonymous Says as Hacker Group Targets Tesla CEO
The video accuses the Tesla CEO of abandoning bitcoin as a form of payment in order to keep government subsidies.
A video on YouTube claiming to be from the hacker group Anonymous takes aim at Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, saying his tweets that have roiled the cryptocurrency markets have “destroyed lives” of hardworking people who’ve had “their dreams liquidated over your public temper tantrums.”


Given the very nature and name of the decentralized hacker group, it's impossible to determine with 100% certainty that the video was created by a member(s) of Anonymous. Still the video bears all the hallmarks of past videos that are accepted as having been created by group members.
Wearing the group's trademark Guy Fawkes mask and using a voice changer, the narrator of the video accuses Musk of being little more than a Bond villain, someone with a carefully cultivated image as a visionary that's a disguise for "nothing more than another narcissistic rich dude who is desperate for attention."
After taking issue with Musk's environmental and labor record, the video zeroed in on Musk's recent dabbling with cryptocurrencies and saying that Musk only turned his back on bitcoin (BTC, -0.24%) because he was afraid of Tesla losing government subsidies.
" It is now widely believed you have been forced to denounce your company's involvement with Bitcoin in order to keep that green government money flowing into Tesla's coffers," the video says.
The hacker group further calls Musk's recent move to create a bitcoin miner council an attempt to take control of the industry.
The video reserved some of its harshest comments for Musk's recent tweets that have helped wipe billions of dollars of value from the crypto market, saying "Millions of retail investors were really counting on their crypto gains to improve their lives....  As hardworking people have their dreams liquidated over your public temper tantrums, you continue to mock them with memes from one of your million dollar mansions."
The video, which at press time has 1.2 million views, ends with a variation of the group's signature sign-off. "You may think you are the smartest person in the room, but now you have met your match. We are Anonymous! We are Legion! Expect us."
Despite numerous people having posted a copy of the video to Musk's Twitter feed, the Tesla CEO has yet to directly respond. However, Musk did post a tweet Saturday afternoon that could be interpreted as a response. In the tweet, Musk simply said "Don't kill what you hate. Save what you love." In addition, Musk's profile picture was changed to a completely filled-in black circle that could be a reference to the color most associated with Anonymous.
But then again, given Musk's history of enigmatic tweets, perhaps not.
The following is a transcript of the video:

“Greetings world, This is a message from Anonymous, for Elon Musk.

For the past several years you have enjoyed one of the most favorable reputations of anyone in the billionaire class because you have tapped into the desire that many of us have to live in a world with electric cars and space exploration, but recently your carefully created public image is being exposed and people are beginning to see you as nothing more than another narcissistic rich dude who is desperate for attention.

It appears that your quest to save the world is more rooted in a superiority and savior complex than it is in actual concern for humanity. This has been obvious to your employees for a long time who have faced intolerable conditions under your command for years.

It is also obvious to the young children working in your overseas lithium mines which are destroying the local environment as well. You have been open about your willingness to stage coups in order to install dictators in places where your toxic products are being mined. You have even prematurely crowned yourself ‘Emperor of Mars,’ a place where you will be sending people to die.

Your fanboys overlook these issues because they are focused on the potential good that your projects can bring to the world but you are not the only show in town and your competition is growing more intense with each passing day.

There are plenty of other companies working on space exploration and electric vehicles, you are just the only CEO who has gained a cult following through sh*tposting and trolling the world on social media. In fact, many people are not learning that the vast majority of Tesla’s income doesn’t come from selling cars, it comes from government subsidies – selling carbon tax credits for your innovation with clean energy

This technically isn’t your innovation though because you aren’t actually the founder of Tesla. You simply purchased the company from two people much more intelligent than you are – Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning

Tesla has also made more money holding bitcoin for a few months than they did in years of selling cars.

It is also more than likely that this bitcoin was purchased with money from these government subsidies.

It is now widely believed you have been forced to denounce your company’s involvement with Bitcoin in order to keep that green government money flowing into Tesla’s coffers.

The energy use argument about proof-of-work mining is a very nuanced conversation that requires a fairly complex understanding of how power grids work and how excess energy is wasted by power companies and sought out by crypto miners.

This is a conversation that you have been having for over a year and were intimately aware of but as soon as your main source of income was threatened as your pretended to be clueless in an attempt to play both sides of the fence

Then, your move to create a bitcoin miner council was rightly seen as an attempt to centralize the industry and take it under your control.

Reading the comments on your Twitter posts, it seems that the games you have played with the crypto markets have destroyed lives.

Millions of retail investors were really counting on their crypto gains to improve their lives. This is something that you will never understand because you were born into the stolen wealth of a South African apartheid emerald mine and have no clue what struggle is like for most of the working people in the world.

Of course, they took the risk upon themselves when they invested, and everyone knows to be prepared for volatility in crypto, but your Tweets this week show a clear disregard for the average working person.

As hardworking people have their dreams liquidated over your public temper tantrums, you continue to mock them with memes from one of your million dollar mansions.

You may think you are the smartest person in the room, but now you have met your match.

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(edited)

Bitcoin Miners’ Wallet Net Flows Are Increasingly Turning Negative
Brian Njuguna   Jun 10, 2021 14:25
2 Min Read

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a sharp correction that drove the price to lows of $30k after enjoying a remarkable bull run, which pushed the price to an all-time high (ATH) of $64,800 in mid-April.

Bitcoin miners have been on the receiving end because this market crash slashed their profit margins. 

As a result, their miner wallet net flows have been increasingly turning negative, as acknowledged by Dilution-proof. The on-chain data firm explained:

"Bitcoin miners are in pain due to the price crash cutting into their profit margins. Since the start of Elon's tweets on May 12, the hash rate has dropped; likely miners being turned off. That is now stabilizing, but miner wallet net flows are increasingly turning negative."

The hashrate is used to measure the processing power of the BTC network. It allows computers to process and solve problems that would enable transactions to be approved and confirmed across the network.

When more miners join the Bitcoin network, more computational guesses per second are needed to find the solution. As a result, the hash power will increase, and Bitcoin's network difficulty will go up.

Reportedly, Bitcoin miners liquidated their holdings by selling at least 5,000 BTC last week.

On-chain activity on the BTC network plunge

According to crypto data provider Glassnode:

“On-chain activity on the Bitcoin network has dropped off, as investors become uneasy around the market direction.”

Furthermore, crypto exchanges have experienced significant BTC outflows, as acknowledged by market analyst William Clemente III. He noted:

“Exchanges now down over 30,000 BTC in the last 3 days.”

Meanwhile, El Salvador became the first nation to accept Bitcoin as legal tender. This move is expected to boost the country’s economy by generating new jobs and availing financial inclusion, given that 70% of the populace does not have access to traditional financial services.  

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