'Godzilla' Looks to Become King of the Weekend Box Office

[AlphaKing]

The box office continues to improve as we get deeper into the summer movie season. At the beginning of the month the 2019 box office was -11.7% behind last year, but with the end of May on our doorstep we are currently -9.4% behind last year with the month of May just a shade behind May 2018 and the summer movie season currently pacing just ahead of Summer 2018, which ranked as the fourth largest summer of all-time. Looking to maintain the positive trend, this weekend will see Disney's Aladdin follow-up a strong, Memorial Day weekend debut while three new releases vie for a spot in the top five. Among them, WB's release of Godzilla: King of the Monsters is expected to deliver a #1 finish while Paramount's Rocketman debuts after a strong opening in the UK last weekend and Blumhouse's latest thriller Ma is also looking to spark some attention from the horror audience.

Opening in 4,108 locations, Warner Bros. will debut Godzilla: King of the Monsters, the sequel to the 2014 revival of Godzilla, which opened with a massive $93 million. The studio followed that film up with Kong: Skull Island in March of 2017 and it opened with $61 million domestically and now King of the Monsters serves as the third film in the studio's Monsterverse franchise and WB is anticipating an opening anywhere from $50-55 million.

A look at IMDb page view performance leading up to release shows the Godzilla sequel pacing well behind the original as well as behind Skull Island. In fact, it's pacing closer to Rampage, which opened last April with $35.7 million from 4,101 locations. Alternatively, online ticket retailer Fandango.com reports the film is outpacing Skull Island at the same point in the sales cycle. All told, we are currently trending right in the middle of the studio's anticipated range, looking for an opening right around $53 million. Screenings get underway today with previews beginning in ~3,600 locations beginning at 4PM.

Internationally, Godzilla opens day-and-date with the US in virtually all international markets including in China and Japan where the film is distributed by Legendary East and Toho, respectively. Among the handful of markets opening later in June are Spain and Poland.

Disney's Aladdin opened with the fifth largest Memorial Day opening of all-time last weekend and the question is whether it can hold on a bit better than recent films that finished with similar openings. The likes of Fast & Furious 6 and X-Men: Days of Future Past dipped -64% in their second weekends while Disney's Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End slipped -61.5% back in 2007. In fact, you look at most any of the recent Memorial Day openers and their second weekends feature 60%+ drops in their sophomore session. The question is whether the more family-friendly Aladdin manages to appeal to a wider demographic and can hold on a bit better. For our forecast we're going to assume so, anticipating a dip around -58%, though we wouldn't be surprised if it performs closer to the average or, perhaps, even goes the other way with something closer to a -50% drop and challenges for a $45+ million second weekend.

Paramount's Rocketman is looking at a third place start at this time as the R-rated musical fantasy inspired by the life of Elton John looks to find a similar place among 2019's releases to that of last year's Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star is Born. To that point, while Rocketman is pacing behind A Star is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody when looking at IMDb page view data, it is right in line with Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again, which opened with nearly $35 million in July 2018, all of which has us looking at a debut performance well ahead of the $18-20 million Paramount is anticipating. In fact, with the film launching in 3,610 locations and receiving a majority of positive reviews — 73 on Metacritic and 90% on RottenTomatoes — we see no reason to expect much less than $30-35 million if not more.

Internationally, Rocketman opened in the UK last week and has grossed over $8.6 million as of this past Tuesday. This weekend the film expands to a further 39 markets including France, Italy, Australia, Brazil, Germany, Mexico and Spain.

Universal's latest collaboration with Blumhouse Productions is this weekend's release of Ma, which is expecting a strong start for the $5 million production as it debuts in over 2,700 locations. Starring Octavia Spencer, the thriller is pacing similarly to this year's January release of Escape Room ($18.2m opening) when looking at IMDb page view data while also outpacing the likes of The Intruder ($10.8m opening) and 2018's Breaking In ($17.6m opening) and pacing slightly behind April 2018's Truth or Dare ($18.6m opening). The studio is anticipating an opening in the mid-teens and everything we're seeing suggests the same, which has us looking for an opening around $15-17 million.

Internationally, Ma opens day-and-date with North America in 36 international markets, including Brazil, Germany, Mexico and the U.K. & Ireland, with additional markets rolling out through the summer.

Rounding out the top five is Lionsgate's John Wick: Chapter 3, which we're expecting to dip -45% or so for a three-day around $13.5 million, pushing the film's domestic cume closer to $130 million as it enters its third week in release.

Overall, we're looking for the top twelve to dramatically outperform the same weekend last year, delivering around $185+ million for the weekend, continuing to close the yearly gap compared to 2018.

This weekend's forecast is directly below.

Godzilla: King of the Monsters (4,108 theaters) - $53.0 M
Aladdin (4,476 theaters) - $38.3 M
Rocketman (3,610 theaters) - $32.0 M
Ma (2,808 theaters) - $17.0 M
John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum (3,604 theaters) - $13.5 M
Avengers: Endgame (3,105 theaters) - $11.2 M
Pokemon Detective Pikachu (3,147 theaters) - $8.3 M
Brightburn (2,607 theaters) - $4.0 M
Booksmart (2,518 theaters) - $3.7 M
A Dog's Journey (1,674 theaters) - $1.9 M